학력에 따른 청년임금근로자의 임금변화궤적 탐색 및 예측요인 분석 : 일반고와 직업계고를 중심으로

Abstract

본 연구는 KEEP Ⅱ 자료를 활용하여 청년임금근로자의 잠재계층별 임금변화궤적을 분석하고, 다항 로지스틱 회귀분석을 통해 이를 예측하는 요인을 검토하였다. 연구결과, 임금변화궤적은 ‘임금 유지형’, 임금 감소형‘, ’임금 증가형‘ 세 집단으로 구분되었으며. 학력과 자격증, 교과성적이 임금 변화궤적을 예측하는 주요 요인으로 확인되었다. 본 연구의 주요 결과로 직업계고만을 졸업한 청년임금근로자의 경우 일반고졸자, 일반고졸 이후 대졸자, 직업계고졸 이후 대졸자에 비해 ’임금 유지형‘ 에 속할 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 자격증의 개수가 많을수록 ’임금 감소혐‘ 보다 ’임금 유지형‘에, 교과성적이 높을수록 ’임금 유지형‘보다 ’임금 증가형‘에 속할 확률이 높았다. 본 연구를 통해 청년임금근로자의 임금변화궤적과 예측요인을 탐색하였고, 연구결과를 토대로 시사점을 제시하였다.

This study analyzed the wage change trajectories of young wage workers using the KEEP II dataset and examined the factors predicting these trajectories through multinomial logistic regression analysis. The results indicated that wage change trajectories could be categorized into three groups: 'Wage Maintenance,' 'Wage Decrease,' and 'Wage Increase.' Key predictors of these wage change trajectories were identified as educational background, certifications, and academic performance. A significant finding of the study is that young wage workers who graduated from vocational high schools were more likely to belong to the 'Wage Maintenance' group compared to those who graduated from general high schools, those with general high school diplomas who later earned a college degree, and those who graduated from vocational high schools and later obtained a college degree. Furthermore, the greater the number of certifications, the higher the likelihood of being in the 'Wage Maintenance' group rather than the 'Wage Decrease' group. Additionally, higher academic performance was associated with a greater likelihood of belonging to the 'Wage Increase' group rather than the 'Wage Maintenance' group. This study explored the wage change trajectories and their predictors among young wage workers, providing insights and implications based on the findings.