새로운 인력수급 전망모형 연구

Abstract

본 연구는 2005년에 한국직업능력개발원에서 실시한 장기인력수급 전망 연구를 바탕 으로, 정보기능을 강화하는 방향으로 모형의 개선을 추구하였다. 정보기능의 활성화를 위해서는 직업별 정보의 신뢰성이 높아야 할뿐만 아니라, 정보의 내용이 최종 수요자가 활용 가능할 정도로 구체적이어야 한다. 이런 이유로 진로선택과 직업 상담에서 활용 가능한 수준의 직업별 수치 고용전망과 함께 질적인 변동전망을 제시하는 방식으로 모형을 수립하였다. 여기에는 재직자와 직업 전문가의 전망을 수렴하는 과정이 포함되어 있는데, 산업과 직업별로 세부적인 생산과 고용 자료가 미흡한 조건을 보완할 수 방법이기 때문이다. 제시된 모형을 바탕으로 실제의 데이터를 적용하여 전망작업을 수행한 결과를 보면, 현재 인기가 좋은 의사나 변호사는 점차 직업위상이 낮아지는 대신에 정보통신이나 보안과 같은 분야의 직업위상은 크게 상승하는 등 흥미로운 여러 결과가 제시되었다. 이 연구 결과가 다양한 분야에서 널리 활용되기를 바란다.

Proper projections of future changes can help heighten the autonomy and effectiveness of choices and actions. The choice of future career paths and employment has the characteristic of being carried out based on a consideration of future shifts. To be able to perform specific jobs, one needs to take a series of steps such as completing the pertinent education courses, engaging in job training, and obtaining the relevant certificate of qualification. Moreover, the period in which one will engage in the selected job is generally rather lengthy. Therefore, future job choices should be carried out based on an occupational supply and demand projection system which makes it possible to forecast potential future occupations. The selection of a career path that is not in keeping with labor market demand can lead to many economic hardships for the relevant individuals. In addition, such situations can also cause problems such as making it hard for enterprises to recruit the required manpower, and at the national level, create unemployment. Based on a prediction of future economic structure, an occupational supply and demand projection system includes various factors such as changes in occupational employment, change in expected wages, and the change in required skill levels. Changes in occupational employment are mainly influenced by changes in final demand, the development of technical levels, changes in business practices, and the expansion of international transactions. In this regard, the changes in production and consumption created by the growth or contraction of international transactions can be regarded as the factor most difficult to predict and which bring about some of the most rapid shifts. The level of occupational wages based on the supply and demand for labor within the relevant occupation, and influenced by various factors, is a very important factor when considering the economic significance of a particular occupation. In terms of job selection, wages (income) should be taken to implythe wages that can be anticipated given the possibility of securing employment within the relevant field, and the outlook for long-term employment, rather than the wage levels at a specific point in time. Changes in occupational skills are influenced by the development of technical levels and changes in business practices. The introduction of new technologies or equipment can change the methods used to perform the related job tasks and eventually bring about shifts in the skills required. As an occupational supply and demand projection system must take into consideration these complicated and diverse variables, various models have been developed based on the institutions and customs of the relevant labor market or the stages of economic development of the pertinent country. Economically advanced countries such as the United States have developed occupational supply and demand projection models that have been based on their own characteristics, and have made continuous improvements to these models over time. Various Korean institutes have developed projection models covering specific periods, and these have been used to compile occupational supply and demand projections. However, the majority of these projections have been focused on capacity-centered quantitative models. Moreover, as occupational classifications were restricted to the sub-major group level, many limitations have emerged with regards to the actual use of these models. This study consists of a reanalysis of existing occupational supply and demand projection models in order to establish a new model that makes it possible to forecast the supply and demand for manpower at the occupational unit level, as well as of an analysis of the relevant results from a multilateral standpoint. In addition, this study is also geared towards helping teenagers, who form the manpower of the future, choose advantageous future career paths, and to induce their smooth school to work transition. Moreover, this study may also serve as the foundation upon which presently employed or job-seeking individuals base their decision to change jobs, or the manner in which they seek employment. By heightening the job match between the jobseekers and various occupations and those engaged in the relevant field, this study will increase the manpower pool and its usage, and ultimately contribute to the achievement of economic growth and general job stability. Furthermore, this study is expected to be used in many occupational studies conducted by the Korea Research Institute for Vocational Education & Training (KRIVET) and to improve the effectiveness of these studies. ...