산업인력 수급전망과 과제

Abstract

산업수요에 부응하는 인력 양성·개발을 위해 노동시장 상황을 반영하는 산업인력수요의 양적·질적 예측을 새롭게 제시할 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 중장기적인 인력수요예측을 질과 기술위주의 예측으로 전환하는 계기로 삼고자 하며, 직업교육훈련정책을 위한 국가기본계획의 인력수급부문을 지원하는데 그 목적이 있다.

The central focus of this research paper is to explore the forecasted demand and supply of industrial manpower based on regression methods and market signals in the labor market. The final goal of this report is to give the principal reference of industrial manpower and vocational training policies to the government sector.

1) This study considers the relation of population structure change and economic growth and industrial structure change to the economic activity participated rate in the medium term in Korea (until 2010). This also forecasts the supply of educational industrial manpower in the education market.

2) This report includes, in addition to the forecasting estimation of industrial manpower, demand according to the industrial structural change and the serious shortages, surplus of manpower within industry and occupation.

3) This study focuses on the social rate of return to investment in education, based on the microeconomic earnings data. It specifies a Jacob Mincer earnings function in using the human capital approach which includes education, experience and interaction term. And it estimates industrial, occupational, educational and sexual social rate of return based on the market signal theory.

4) This study suggests three basic directions of manpower policy, implications and issues in detail concerning to the empirical results and study. In this process, empirical results through a questionnaire survey for college level employee, was used for policy issues. ...