직업능력개발 훈련수요 조사 : 한·미 FTA에 따른 훈련수요 추정

Abstract

2007년 4월 2일 한·미 FTA 협상이 타결되어 현재 양국에서 의회의 비준을 기다리고 있다. 한·미 FTA 협상을 전후로 성장률과 고용창출 효과에 대한 연구들이 진행되어 왔다. 시나리오에 따라 다르지만 이러한 분석들은 약 30~55만？명의 고용 증가를 가져올 것으로 전망하며, 이에 따라 새롭게 창출될 인력 수요에 따른 직업훈련 수요의 증가도 예견되어 왔다. 본 연구는 이렇듯 한·미 FTA의 영향으로 인한 고용조정 및 인력 수요에 따른 직업훈련 수요를 추정하는 것을 주요 목적으로 하였다. ○ 주요내용 - 한·미 FTA의 주요 내용 및 업종별 영향 분석 - 산업별, 직업별, 훈련직종별 한·미 FTA의 영향으로 인한 고용조정 및 인력수요 규모에 따른 훈련수요 추정 - 기계, 전기전자, 의류 및 섬유, 승용차 및 부품 업종 390여 개소에 대하여 한·미 FTA에 따른 인력 및 훈련 수요, 한·미 FTA 준비 수준 등에 대한 설문조사 및 업종별 연합회, 협회 인사 등과의 면담결과 분석 - 정책방안 도출

With the Korea-U.S. FTA taking effect as of April 2nd 2007, both countries are now awaiting legislative ratification. The main purpose of this study was to conduct a survey on vocational training demand arising from employment adjustment and manpower demand following the agreement. The major findings from this study are as follows: Firstly, in order to analyze the impact of the FTA on labor markets, the primary terms of the Korea-U.S. FTA and their impact on each job were investigated. Secondly, the vocational training demand directly resulting from employment adjustment and manpower demand following the implementation of an FTA with the U.S. has been divided into estimates for each industry, job, and training program. By deducting the adjusted employment number from the net job creation thanks to the FTA, the increase of manpower demand is estimated to be around 75,200 to 395,900 jobs in total. The agriculture & fishery industries, which are under more pressure for employment adjustment, might not show an increase in demand for human resources, however about 19,000 more jobs are expected to be created in the long run. In the manufacturing sector, it is estimated that there will be an increase in manpower demand in the range of 5,800 to 92,800. As a driver of job creation in the Korean market, the service sector will see an increase in manpower demand of 69,400 to 283,700. Looking into the manpower demand derived from the agreement by job type, the biggest beneficiaries in the next decade shall be beauty, accommodation, travel, entertainment, and sport related jobs, which will experience an increase in manpower demand in the range of 25,000 to 100,000, while positions in the textile & clothing industries are expected to increase by 8,000 to 55,000. On the basis of the previous estimation, the training demand for each job category was analyzed by classifying 75,162 jobs as a minimum demand arising from FTA in each job training program according to demand volume: other service (22,702 persons), tourism & accommodation service (5,949 persons), sewing (4,292 persons), maintenance？facilities (3,463 persons), clothes making (2,098 persons), and construction (2,092 persons). In addition, 395,940 jobs was analyzed to be the maximum manpower demand arising from the agreement, and by job training field these can be broken down as: other services (92,231 persons), sewing (31,086 persons), maintenance？facilities (18,386 persons), and clothes making (15,197 persons). Thirdly, targeting about 390 businesses in the machinery, electricity & electronics, clothing & textile, and the automotive & auto parts sectors, all of which are expected to be strongly affected by the Korea-U.S. FTA, surveys as well as interviews with associations representing each industry and industry leaders were conducted regarding the anticipated job & vocational training demand brought about by the FTA, and how prepared they are for the resulting changes. In general, rather than a direct and quick effect, businesses anticipate long-term effects from the Korea-U.S. FTA. Taking a mid & long-term view, 3 years or more into the agreement the domestic market will witness job increases to some degree in the R&D sector, and another slight increase in mechanical, office, sales, and technical jobs. Meanwhile, low-skilled labor jobs are anticipated to decrease in demand. In addition, businesses in overseas markets are more likely to have an increase in manpower demand that is much higher than their overall sector. As it is still very much in controversy for many parts of the county, it isn’t easy to clearly forecast the effects of the agreement between Korea & the U.S. on our economy. However, policy must be shaped to prepare countermeasures that respond to the impact of the bilateral agreement. In other words, the framing of policy should be based not on the prospective result, but should be made with reference to the result. It is much more important to prepare a contingency plan which can respond to general situations expected from the prospective result.