국가숙련전망조사(2017)

Abstract

2017년 연구의 목표는 ‘국가숙련전망조사’ ‘국가숙련전망조사’와 ‘KRIVET 국가숙련전망 모형’에 터하여 조사를 진행해 나갈 뿐만 아니라 구체적인 전망 결과를 제시하는 것이다. 당해 연구는 10년 계획 중 8년차 사업으로, 2012년부터 2015년까지의 고용주 조사 결과 분석을 바탕으로 문제점을 보완한 2016년 조사 결과와 2017년 조사 결과를 기반으로 숙련수요 측면의 기초정보 생성을 본격화한 것이다. 본 연구 결과는 우리나라 10년 후 미래의 숙련 변화에 대한 실증자료를 제공할 것이다. 이는 정부의 고용률 제고 및 청년실업 해소 정책과 숙련 관련 구조적 요인에 의한 인력수급 불일치를 해소하기 위한 정책에 기초자료가 될 것이라 기대한다.

The objective of this study in 2017 is to not only conduct a research on the ‘National Skill Forecast Survey’ and the ‘KRIVET National Skill Forecasting Model’ but also present detail outlook results. This research is the 8th year project of the 10-year plan. Based on the results of the 2016 survey and the 2017 survey, which had been modified for improvement from the analysis of the survey results of employers from 2012 to 2015, we would like to collate basic information on demand for skillsets in depth. In conclusion, the key to the 2017 study is to investigate the current skill distribution more precisely and to predict any changes in the future skill distribution.

First, the current skill distribution has been identified as a basic vocational skill that is crucial in the real practice through the survey of existing employers. Next, in order to identify any potential changes in future skill distribution, we performed a real-time Delphi survey in this study. The real-time Delphi survey which evaluates the importance of basic occupational skills important to the future has the merit of extracting and synthesizing opinions and judgments of experts (personnel and labor representatives) by presenting the average value or response status of the respondents as a whole, and drawing collective consensus.

Furthermore, the FGI survey on the outlook results using the real-time Delphi survey was conducted. The key is to draw reliable forecast results. Therefore, the FGI survey was also conducted as part of the review process to confirm the reliability or robustness of the outcome of this study. The FGI survey was carried out for the first time this year, and it helped exploring demands for skilled workers in both the current and the future periods as well as any specific, exemplary cases.

Finally, the results of the real-time Delphi survey on the basic occupational skills that are believed to be vital in the future were compared to the FGI survey and AHP survey. Through this process, we will both review the outcome of the prospect and present the result of our qualitative analysis of the phenomenon, cause, and problem of skill mismatch.

Particularly, through a comprehensive review of the results of various research methods (real-time Delphi, AHP, and FGI) on demand for then skilled labour, this study will present a more realistic skill outlook result by summarizing and analyzing the information of the current skilled and future skilled manpower. Using the combined data of the National Skill Forecast Survey collected from the service industry in 2016 and the manufacturing industry in 2017, the following forecasts for the future demand for skills are prepared.

To summarize KRIVET national skill forecast results, Korean firms believe that 'Problem Solving Skill (or referred to as PSS in this paper)’ is the most important ability and predict it to remain so in the next 10 years. Yet, they also have identified the PSS as the skill that needs the most improvement. The PSS is particulary deemed as important by the companies as it is considered as the core job competency required to perform tasks.

Therefore, companies or governments may need select specific skills such as the PSS as the priority targets of their skills development programs. Additionally, occupational ethics and interpersonal skills such as ‘work ethics’, ‘community ethics’, and ‘teamwork skills’ have been recognized as important skills both now and in the future.

This study is meaningful in a way that the forecast result confirms the necessary skillsets that will require political/administrative intervention in the future. However, the result from the National Skill Forecast was deduced and presented for the first time this year, requiring reviews on a various level in the future in order to increase its reliability and the possibility of its adoption as a policy.

The results of this study will provide empirical data on future changes in skills in Korea a decade later. We may expect that this will then serve as the basic data for the policy to solve any structural discrepancy in supply and demand of skilled labour, review employment rate, and decrease youth unemployment rate.