A Fundamental Study for National Manpower Supply and Demand Forecast

Abstract

This paper examines the methods used in national manpower supply and demand forecast and presents a model for the prediction of manpower projection in Korea. The national manpower supply and demand forecast has provided the user's projections, especially in the fields of career guidance and education planning, with information to enhance their understanding of the situations faced in developing human resource development. Measurement of manpower projection accuracy, however, is not a simple task. Broad trends in manpower projection have been projected fairly accurately, but accuracy has not increased over time. One traditional measure is to compare projected manpower supply and demand with actual manpower supply and demand and compute the difference in percentage terms. Over the years, the manpower projection procedures and methodologies used to develop the projections have undergone many changes as new data series and developed models became available and economic and statistical tools improved. In general, one approach to developing detailed manpower projections requires that final demand (GDP divided into its components-investment, consumption, government expenditures, and foreign trade) be specified by producing industry. The Bank of Korea input-output model consists of two basic matrices for each year, a "use" and a "make" table (expressed in coefficient form). Once projected values of the "use" and "make" relationships are available the projection of commodity demand developed in proceeding steps is converted into a projection of domestic industry output. ...