2030 미래의 직업생활 연구

Abstract

본 연구의 주요 내용은 2030년에 예상되는 미래의 직업 트렌드, 조직 및 근무 형태, 경력유형과 라이프스타일 등이다. 사용된 주요 연구 방법은 국내외 선행연구 고찰, 연구방법론 워크숍, 연구진 브레인스토밍, 환경스캐닝, 퓨처스 휠, 델파이 조사, 인과지도, 인과계층분석, 시나리오 분석, 전문가협의회 및 간담회, FGI 등이다.

Despite drastic change in the world of work, such as increasing numbers of part-timers, teleworkers, and nomad workers, it is not easy to predict what worklife in the future Korea will be like, and what preparations should be made to prepare for our future prospects. The purpose of this study was to explore the driving forces that may affect the future of worklife, foresee the changes in worklife in the future, and make suggestions for better preparation for future workers through new policies in the fields of career and technical education, and training and development. Various future research methodologies were used for this study: Environmental scanning, Futures wheel, Causal loop diagram, Causal layered analysis, Delphi, and Scenario planning. A literature review, workshops, brainstorming, and focus group interviews were conducted as well. Factors driving worklife in 2030 may include the following: changes in structure of the population (aging and low birthrate), development of science and technology (including information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, etc.), changes in the labor market, environmental pollution, climate change, natural disasters, increasing labor mobility, and greater interest in quality of life.

Future prospects: ● Green jobs, more people employed in medical and welfare industries, new occupations for senior citizens, stronger competition with global job seekers, fewer jobs, and greater unemployment; ● Flat organizations, less hierarchy, people hired on a project basis, increasing need for knowledge and skills for multiple projects in various areas, self-directed career development; ● Individual-oriented rather than organization oriented view about job, more female workers and changes in organization culture, more conflicts because of increasing need for collaboration with people from diverse cultural backgrounds; and ● Increased flexibility at work doesn't necessarily mean more leisure. The need for work-life balance will increase, however, the vague boundary between work and leisure can bring more competition and performance orientation. The traditional distinction among schooling, work, and leisure will disappear. People in the future will experience learning-work-leisure simultaneously throughout their lives.

Two driving forces for the framework of future scenarios were selected: economic growth (fast vs. slow) and basis of a society (efficiency vs. equity). Four future scenarios were developed based on a 2×2 matrix: Workaholic Society, Dynamic Welfare Society, Inactive Equal Society, and the Society for Few Fittest Survivors. This study proposes a vision of the 2030 worklife, and suggests five main issues along with detailed action items needed to reach the most preferred scenario in 2030, a Dynamic Welfare Society.